Interactive demos

Each mechanism page carries its own Try it widget, in context with the maths, running the JavaScript port in docs/js/mechanisms.js, the same code checked for numerical parity against the Python library in tests/test_js_parity.py, so the demos never drift from the reference implementation.

Proper scoring rules

Score a two-outcome forecast (log / Brier / spherical) against the realised outcome.

Local (Hyvärinen) scoring

The score of a Gaussian quote, using only derivatives of log p, no normaliser.

Point-cloud scoring: jitter the pin

Raw KDE scoring pays you to shave h² off your variance; jitter the outcome and truthfulness wins.

LMSR

Buy shares; watch prices move, cost accrue, and the bounded maker loss.

Cost-function maker

A quadratic potential: prices are the gradient, LMSR's softmax is one choice among many.

Combinatorial market

An LMSR over two binary variables, keeping marginals and conditionals coherent.

Decision markets

Conditional values per action and a decision rule, argmax starves a market; softmax keeps all live.

Constant-product AMM

Sell into an x·y=k pool: output, new spot price, and impermanent loss.

pm-AMM

The prediction-market AMM price curve as a function of the reserve difference.

Parimutuel

Stakes set pool fractions (implied probabilities) and decimal odds, net of takeout.

Continuous double auction

A market buy sweeps the resting asks cheapest-first and walks up the book.

Frequent batch auction

One uniform clearing price per batch, maximising matched volume.

Hybrid CLOB + AMM

A YES buy fills complementary bids first, then spills into the LMSR backstop.

Perpetual futures

The funding rate that tethers a perp to its index, and who pays whom.

Demand lending pools

The linear funding rate that pushes long/short balance and price toward the index.

Peer prediction

Output agreement: reward matching reports, and its collusion failure mode.

Forecast aggregation

Linear vs logarithmic opinion pools of two categorical forecasts.